Monday’s Market Development
After “gapping” below Friday’s close at 2043 and selling down to the prior fractal highs at or near 2025 at the open of Sunday’s globex session the broad benchmark S&P 500 close above Friday’s finishing the session at 2054.
On Friday S&P futures sold down below the initial retracement up to 2062 equal to the 01-07-15 high. The 16.25 point pull-back was approximately an average daily range. S&P futures traded up 11 points above Friday’s 2048 pull-back level, but “paused” at the high where the auctioned encountered buying interest waning. Later in the day the S&P sold down from 2057, breached support below the opening range low 2048 and traded lower into the close 2043.
S&P futures traded about the 2025 “gap” low, auctioning up to 2035, before recovering back up to Friday’s close 2043, Friday’s low 2047: 21 points above the overnight low.
At the open the market encountered a lack of buying interest above Friday’s low 2047 and the S&P sold down 12 points and pulled back to 2034, the price level where the S&P rallied off the low and “paused prior to filling the “gap” at the open.
During the mid-day session S&P futures had difficulty trading above 2048. However, late in the day buying interest returned and after pulling back to 2045, the S&P rallied up to 2054: 20.50 points above Monday’s opening range low.
While the S&P has not traded above January resistance at 2062 the price trajectory is arguably on the path to re-test Friday high; the 01-07-15 high at 2062. The remaining distance to the all-time record high 2088 is 26 points above Friday’s high. A rallying up to the December high would be an extreme price excursion.
A retreatment to 2088 in the context of Tuesday session would represent an exhaustion short covering rally.
In the event S&P futures pull-back to the “late in the day” low at 2004, hold support and auction above Friday’s high at 2058, sellers at 2062 are advised to be cautious.
Sunday’s globex sell-off was likely resulted as a reaction to Greece's Syriza party sweeping victory in Monday’s election with prompted concerns that the Syriza party would roll back austerity measures.
The election appeared to have no measurable material effect. European markets started the week extended the trading range to a seven-year high.
Optimism over central-bank stimulus program prevailed. With the ECB QE in place, a risk-on scenario is likely to dominate the euro-zone.