Wednesday’s Overnight Session

S&P futures traded higher in the overnight session, auctioning above the prior day’s high 2034 and rallying up to 2047, as of this post.

On Wednesday, S&P futures traded up to 2032, modestly above what had been near term resistance at 2024-2028. The rally lost momentum (lack of buying interest) and selling pressure resulted in price auctioning down 16.50 points to 2016.  A later in the day recovery was unable to auction price back to re-test the opening range high 2032 and price action stalled at or 2028.

The current overnight high at 2048 is 30.75 points above the closing range pull-back level 2016 and at this stage in the development represents minor range extension (14 points) above yesterday’s high.

In the broader context, on 01-08-15 S&P futures sold down from 2064 to close the session at 2033. The following day selling pressure continued with the S&P trading down to 2014, before short covering back up to 2052, the nearest high above the current overnight high 2039.

The 01-13-15 short covering rally up to 2052 was followed by a 68 points (3.3%) sell-off to 1984. On 01-14-15 another short covering rally auction S&P futures above 1980, up to 2027; 47 points ( 2.3%) only to see S&P futures sell back down below the 01-14-15 day session low and make a new low on 01-15-15 at 1870.

Measuring the current trading range based on the nearest low at 1960 (12-15-14) and the new all-time record high at 2089 (12-28-14) S&P futures is currently trading in a 129 points range.

The mid-point of the trading range is 2024. The upper quadrant (75%) of the trading range is located at 2058. The maximum value is the all-time record high at 2089.

The rally above the 2000 marked the beginning of the recovery rally from a technical perspective.

However, the economic conditions have not significantly changed and there is little in the way of rational to support the S&P trading above 2088-2100

However, the currently market condition indicates support at or near 20009-1998 and resistance at 2052.



Billy 

Sunday’s Overnight Globex Session

S&P futures traded higher during Sunday’s overnight globex session, auctioning up to 2023, 10 points above Friday’s close and 4 points below the next know high at 2028.

Following the rally up to the overnight high at 2023, S&P futures pulled back 20 points in search of support. Coming into Sunday’ssession we noted the near term support was likely to be found at or near 2003-2001.

The rally up to Sunday’s overnight globex high was a gain of 42.50 points above Friday’s fractal low at 1980. The pull-back to 2003 equaled the half way back point and a re-test of the 2000 over under price level.

On Friday, the major U.S. benchmark averages recovered from a five day decline. The Dow rallied 1.1%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq recovered 1.4% and the S&P 500 gained 1.3%.

The price of crude oil traded higher, while economic data was mixed data showing a modest pullback in industrial production. Consumer confidence reportedly improved and weakening core inflation.

  

Speculation in the financial media that a benign inflationary and the decline in the commodity environment would make case for the Federal Reserve delaying the 1st interest rate increase.

Regardless of the cause of the rally, support held on Friday at or near 12-16-14: 1970-1960: 117 points (5.6%) below the 12-28-14 all-time record high in the S&P 500.

The 2003-2000 price level is currently support in the S&P March futures. A breach of support at 2000-2003 would be a negative development. A breach of support increases the likelihood that the S&P will re-test of the 1981 price levels.

In the context in the current market “State”; in the event of a re-test of Friday’s low there is the possible of a lower low. Support at 1961the 12-16-14 low in the next down-side price level.  

Simon Townsend and I got together recently to talk shop.  Simon turned the talk into this video:

 

 

 

 

Thursday’s Globex Session

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S&P futures close of the prior day’s session at the low. Overnight the selling pressure continued. S&P futures traded down to 1970: 28 points below its prior day closing range high at 1998.

Following the initial sell-off (decline), S&P futures traded up to 1988 (18.50 points) at or near the prior day’s close.

The retracement up to 1988 encountered resistance and the S&P re-tested the low, trading down to 1972: 15.50 points.

The pull-back encountered support, there was no lower low. S&P futures traded up 1987 (14.75 points) pulled back to 1976 (11.75 points) before re-testing the retracement high 1988, at or near what had been the prior day’s low.

The slope of the Kalman filter (14 tick range sample) has trend up.

A break-out above 1988 would indicate that a new low at 1970 was established during the overnight globex session.

The minimum expectation would be a rally up to the yesterday’s closing range high at or near 1998-2000.

Near term resistance is up at yesterday’s high 2010, 2018 and the overnight short covering rally high at 2027.

Below the overnight low at 1970, is the remaining support low at 1960; the 12-16-14 low.

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