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Friday, Jan 27th

...sceeto insights

...sceeto :: Why Monitoring Order Flow Matters in the Electronic Futures Markets

 

WOW Index :: Why Monitoring Order Flow Matters in the Electronic Futures Markets

WOW Index :: Insiders and Smart Money Selling Before The Inventory Announcement

WOW Index :: Day Trading Order Flow Momentum

WOW Index :: S&P 500 - January 03, 2011 - Nice Signals...Nice Entry Algorithms

WOW Index :: S&P 500 - Nails the High of the Week

Hotwire.com gives you a smattering of choices ranked by stars and grouped by location.  You are not informed of the address of the choices or their name.

On the other hand, Priceline.com lets you bid a price that you would like to pay for a similar group of hotels batched by location and stars.

Priceline has some 'gotchas' that ensure that you don't begin your bidding for a hotel room at $1.00 and simply up your game one dollar at a time until your bid is accepted by enforcing a rule that you can only make one offer per day per hotel grouping that you choose (location & # of stars).

The trick that I have learned is to do my research for hotel prices by doing a search via Hotwire.

I then take peruse the results of the Hotwire search and find the hotel that best fits my needs.

For instance, tonight I will be in the Fort Washington, PA area.   The hotel that is the best value has a 3 star ranking and a price tag of $93 (plus Hotwire fees).

I then took this information over to Priceline.com and bid $75 for a 3 star hotel in Fort Washington, PA which worked like a charm.

I usually bid on Priceline.com $10 less than the price on Hotwire, but I was feeling plucky and gunned it for $18 lower.

You have to be careful about gunning it though because Priceline.com limits you to one bid per hotel grouping (which is defined as location and # of stars).

You can work around this limitation by having multiple Priceline.com accounts, or by simply limit the aggregate number of locations that you initially bid on to one, and if your bid is rejected, just expand the locations that you are willing to stay one bid at a time (Priceline clumps locations together so if you don't get the hotel that you want in the town that you want you can usually expand your the area that you are willing to stay.  This will allow you to increase your bid, and will likely not put you in an alternate town because you are using information from Hotwire that is specific to the locale that you want.  In other words, the hotels in the next town over are priced higher than the 'sweet spot' that you found on Hotwire. Thus, by adding the additional location to your bid, you are still likely to be in the location that you want because the hotels in this additional location are not going to meet the value pricing information that Hotwire provided).

Hope this helps.

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With all of the hubaloo about Romney's 15% tax rate, I am reminded of a quote from Abraham Lincoln, who, by the way, was a Republican.

In this quote, Lincoln is referencing tariffs...but the spirit of his intent, I believe, is applicable to any person's labor.

"It has so happened that in all ages of the world, that some have labored, and others have, without labor, enjoyed a large proportion of the fruits. This is wrong, and should not continue. To [obtain] for each laborer the whole product of his labor, or as nearly as possible, is a most worthy object of any good government."

- Abraham Lincoln, 1847

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I have only read the abstract and the first few pages but I think that this could be an important paper by Alessandro Beber, Michael W. Brandt and Kenneth A. Kavajec.

Here's a quote:

'it is conceivable that orderflow may contain more or different information than is contained in prices or returns it is conceivable that orderflow may contain more or different information than is contained in prices or returns."
http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0014/105800/What-does-Equity-Sector-Orderflow-tell-us-about-the-Economy.pdf

Any thoughts here?

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Below is a first pass to create a working outline for using WIND and other algos to trade S&P 500 binary options:
  1. Use WIND to determine the direction of the Binary trade.   Solid GREEN in the pre-market points to buying the binary option.   Solid RED in the pre-market points to selling the binary option.  If WIND is neither significantly GREEN or RED, no trade should be taken.
  2. User PREM to assist with the entry time of the Binary trade.
  3. Close out trade upon x profit.  Or close out 1/2 of the trade at x profit (or if Price hits a certain 'Price Magnet' and let the remaining 1/2 run until HH:MM (e.g. 3:58 p.m. EST or 4:12 p.m. EST).
In the graphic below, the horizontal lines are S&P 500 Price Magnets.  Day traders can use as exit targets.

We are distributing a free version of our ...sceeto S&P 500 Price Magnets for TradeStation.  You can download it here.

In the next week or so we will be offering a version of ...sceeto S&P 500 Price Magnets for NinjaTrader.

Hope this helps.

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Me:    Conner, are you going skiing at Mt. Snow today?

Conner (10 year old neighbor):    Yeah.  But the last time I went skiing there I got lost on the mountain.

Me:    Let me give you a tip, Conner.  Next time you get lost on the mountain, look up the mountain and then look down the mountain.  Then point your skis down the mountain.  Sooner or later you'll be at the lodge.

Conner:    I was on the north face of the mountain (which is the back side of the mountain).

Me:    Oh.  Then you're screwed.

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